Latest polls in US midterms: Democrats lead in both Senate and House!

In the United States, the latest polls before the congressional midterm elections on November 3 show that Democrats have an advantage in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. However, the districts where the race is neck‑and‑neck will determine the balance of power in Congress. Whether Republicans can maintain their majority will depend on the results in key states.

While the countdown to the congressional midterm elections continues in the United States, nationwide polls have revealed the current state of the race. In the elections held on November 3, voters will head to the polls for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and for 35 seats in the 100‑member Senate.

According to data compiled by Real Clear Politics (RCP) from national and state‑level polls, Democrats appear ahead of Republicans in both chambers. However, the fact that the race remains neck‑and‑neck in certain states increases uncertainty about the election outcomes.

Democrats hold advantage in the Senate

According to RCP's poll averages, Democrats are expected to win 47 seats in the Senate, while Republicans are projected to win 45. In eight states, the contest between candidates is a dead heat.

Of the eight seats where the race is neck‑and‑neck, seven lean toward Republicans and one toward Democrats.

Competition heats up in 8 key states

The competition between Democratic and Republican candidates in the states whose outcomes are expected to decide the Senate race is drawing attention.

The states and candidates in the neck-and-neck race are as follows:

Alaska: Mary Peltola (Democrat) – Dan Sullivan (Republican)

Iowa: Josh Turek (Democrat) – Ashley Hinson (Republican)

Kansas: Adam Hamilton (Democrat) – Roger Marshall (Republican)

Maine: Troy Jackson (Democrat) – Susan Collins (Republican)

Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) – Mike Rogers (Republican)

Minnesota: Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) – Michele Tafoya (Republican)

Ohio: Sherrod Brown (Democrat) – Jon Husted (Republican)

Texas: James Talarico (Democrat) – Ken Paxton (Republican)

If Republicans win at least five of the seats in the eight states where the race is neck and neck, they are expected to reach 50 seats in the Senate. In the event of a 50‑50 split in the Senate, Vice President JD Vance's tie‑breaking vote could give Republicans the majority.

According to U.S. law, the vice president, who also holds the title of Senate President, can cast a deciding vote if the votes are tied.

Democrats Lead in the House of Representatives.

With 435 seats in the House of Representatives, reaching 218 seats is required to obtain a majority.

According to RCP's current polling averages, Democrats are projected to win 227 seats, while Republicans are expected to win 182. The competition between the two parties for the 26 seats in the House continues.

While polls show Democrats having an advantage in securing a majority, the distribution of votes in the districts is expected to directly affect the outcome.

What Is the Current Power Distribution in Congress?

In the United States, the Senate currently has 53 Republican seats and 45 Democratic seats. Two independent senators, however, often act in concert with the Democrats on many issues.

In the House of Representatives, there are 218 Republican seats, 214 Democratic seats, and one independent seat. Both seats are currently vacant.

The picture that will emerge from the November 3 elections will reshape the political balance in the U.S. Congress. If the Democrats secure a majority in both chambers, it is being assessed that President Donald Trump’s remaining political maneuvering room could shrink.