Research: Humanity could be extinct in 17,000 years according to a mathematical model

The 'Doomsday Argument' statistical model developed by mathematicians estimates that humanity faces a 95% chance of extinction within roughly 17,100 years.

The model is based on the estimate that approximately 117 billion people have lived so far.

Researchers argue that the current population of living humans is highly unlikely to exceed approximately 2.34 trillion, given the assumption that their position in human history is random.

Scientists are adopting a cautious approach.

According to the theory, climate change, nuclear war, pandemics, or other global catastrophes could bring humanity to an end.

However, many scientists point out that the model fails to account for potential future technological advancements, space colonies, and other variables, noting that its approach is based on limited assumptions.

Scientific American also emphasizes that the model is not a definitive prediction but a probability-based mathematical assessment.

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Different population scenarios are also being examined.

In a separate study published in May by researchers at Milan University, the potential impacts of climate crisis, pandemics, global conflicts, and resource shortages on the world population were evaluated across various scenarios.

The researchers clarified that this study, too, does not provide a definitive forecast for the future, but rather aims to model the likely effects of environmental changes on population levels.

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