Trump's Ballot Warning: Majority in Congress in Danger!

According to the U.S. midterm elections report by the Institute for Social Studies, Trump's job approval stands at 33%, while 43% of voters want to send a message against the President at the polls. Democrats appear closer to a majority in the House of Representatives. A potential shift in Congress could also affect Turkey's F‑35 and KAAN engine procurement files.

The U.S. is heading to midterm elections on November 3, 2026 that will determine the scope of President Donald Trump's remaining two years in office. Elections for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate will reveal whether Republicans can maintain their dominance in both chambers of Congress.

The report titled "TÇE Election Guide II: 2026 U.S. Midterms" published by the Institute for Social Studies notes that current indicators point to a favorable picture for Democrats. However, while a majority in the House appears more attainable for Democrats, control of the Senate hinges on fiercely contested races in key states.

The report lists four key factors that will shape the election outcome: Trump's public support, voters' top concerns and the trust they place in parties on those issues, candidates' personal attributes, and the President's campaign strategy.

43% of Voters Want to Send a Message Against Trump

According to the CNN poll average reported in the study, the share of voters approving President Trump's performance during the period from September 24 to October 6, 2026 was 33%, while those disapproving stood at 66%.

The possibility that a reaction toward the president will translate into the ballot is also reflected in voters' motivation to vote. According to the NBC News study dated 11–15 September included in the research, 43% of voters want to send a message against Trump with the vote they will cast in the congressional elections. This figure is higher than the rates of opposing messages measured in other midterm elections since 1998. The proportion of those who say they will vote to send a supportive message to Trump remains at 27%.

The report reminds that midterm elections historically pose a loss risk for the president's party. It notes that only Bill Clinton in 1998 and George W. Bush in 2002 were able to increase their parties' seats in the House of Representatives in midterm elections after World War II.

Supremacy in the Economy Changes Hands

On voters' agendas, American intervention toward Iran, employment, customs tariffs, and gasoline prices stand out. According to the report, the economic consequences of these issues suggest that concerns about livelihood may be decisive in voters' choices.

In the NBC News study cited in the research, 39% say Democrats are more successful in economic management, while 38% favor Republicans. The report interprets this result as Democrats catching up with Republicans, who have been trailing in the economic category for some time, and edging ahead by a narrow margin.

Confidence in Democrats to control inflation stands at 38%, while confidence in Republicans is 31%. The gap is more pronounced in health care: 48% support Democrats, 26% support Republicans. Regarding the war in Iran, the rates are 39% for Democrats and 35% for Republicans.

Republicans, in turn, maintain their dominance in border security, migration, and crime fighting. Confidence in Republicans on border security reaches 50%, while Democrats remain at 29%.

What will be decisive, according to the institute's assessment, is not how many headlines each party leads, but which of the issues voters consider most important they trust.

For the majority, 5 critical seats for Democrats, 17 for Republicans.

The Cook Political Report's October 9 assessment, cited in the report for the House of Representatives, reveals the gap in the race for the majority. Democrats are seen as having an advantage in 213 districts, Republicans in 201. The remaining 21 contests are even.

If both parties win all the districts where they have an advantage, Democrats would need to win only 5 of these 21 contests, while Republicans would need 17, to reach a majority of 218 seats.

Moreover, 15 of the even contests are in seats held by Republicans, 6 by Democrats. This distribution shows that Republicans face pressure to defend their seats in more districts.

The report points out that the Democrats are not far from the risk of loss either. Their reaching a majority depends on gaining seats from the Republicans as well as limiting losses in their own vulnerable regions.

Senate Republicans' Strongholds Are Under Pressure

In the Senate, Republicans hold 53 seats. When two independent senators who usually align with them are added to the Democrats' 45 seats, the opposing bloc reaches 47 seats.

For the Democrats to take control, they must hold onto their current seats and win a net four from the Republicans. In a 50–50 split, Vice President JD Vance’s decisive vote would favor the Republicans.

The report highlights North Carolina as the state where the shift from Republicans to Democrats is most pronounced. According to the October 17 poll averages used in the study, Democrat Roy Cooper has 50.8% support, while Republican Michael Whatley has 40.9%.

Races in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, Texas, and Kansas are also seen as critical. The report notes that in these six states the Democratic candidates lead by narrow margins, but the differences fall within the margin of error.

Texas and Kansas, where Republicans have long held dominance, stand out in particular. According to the study, Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1995, while Kansas has not been represented by a Democratic senator since 1939. In contrast, losses that Democrats could face in states such as Michigan and New Hampshire may render the gains they would achieve in other regions ineffective.

Trump's $5,000 Promise, Democrats Emphasize Livelihood and Health

The report notes that a candidate's personal image can also be influential beyond party affiliation. In Texas, 48% of respondents view Democrat James Talarico positively, while the same percentage for Republican Ken Paxton is 40%. The institute highlights that a candidate's personal strength is especially important in fiercely contested Senate races.

At the center of the Republican campaign is Trump. The president's call for voters to vote as if he were on the ballot, along with the slogan 'Protect the Majority', is seen as an effort to bring his current base to the polls.

The report also mentions a promise to pay every adult American citizen $5,000 if Trump preserves the Republicans' majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives. This pledge is viewed as an attempt to channel the prevailing economic dissatisfaction into a tangible gain for voters. Democrats, on the other hand, run their campaign around themes such as the cost of living and healthcare rather than a single leader or shared slogan.

Critical Threshold in the F‑35 and Kaan Files for Turkey

One of the most important outcomes of the midterm elections for Turkey could emerge in the defense arena. The report notes that despite Trump's positive statements on Turkey's F‑35 request and on U.S.-made engines for the KAAN fighter jet, neither file has yet been finalized.

According to the study, the sale process for KAAN engines entered the notification stage before Congress in June 2026, but delivery has not yet occurred. Regarding the F‑35, legal obstacles tied to Turkey's possession of the S‑400 system persist. The report stresses that Trump's political backing alone is insufficient to overcome these barriers.

According to the institute's assessment, a shift in the congressional majority could strengthen oversight and objections on these matters; it could also make it harder for Trump to translate the positive messages he has sent to Turkey into action.

The report also reminds that the Democrats' lead in polls does not guarantee an electoral win. In particular, a few-point miscalculation in head‑to‑head Senate contests could alter the outcome. Therefore, the picture that will emerge on November 3 will be decisive for both Trump's sphere of influence and the pending dossiers in Ankara‑Washington relations.