US study on future spouses surprises: The most ideal age range emerges

Sociological analyses conducted in the US have brought back into the spotlight long‑standing views on the relationship between marriage age and divorce risk. According to researchers who examined data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), marrying too early is as strongly linked to a higher divorce risk as postponing marriage until the mid‑30s.

Divorce Risk Declines by Age 32

In an analysis using NSFG data from the 2006‑2010 period, sociologist Nicholas Wolfinger found that divorce risk declines through the late 20s and into the early 30s. However, after roughly age 32 the trend reverses and divorce risk begins to rise again.

These findings, in sociology literature"Goldilocks Theoryis the foundation of the approach known as Goldilocks Theory. According to it, the statistically lowest divorce risk for marriage is observed in the 28‑32 age range.

Risk Rises Again After Age 35

One of the study’s striking findings is that the risk of divorce among those who marry at age 35 and older increased again. In a later reanalysis using the 2011‑2013 NSFG data, the researcher also concluded that the 28‑32 age range represents the period of lowest divorce risk.

In the study, various demographic factors such as participants’ gender, level of education, religious affiliation, characteristics of the region where they live, family structure, and whether they had children before marriage were also taken into account. When these variables were controlled, the rise in divorce risk beginning in the mid‑30s did not disappear entirely.

Similar Result in Two Different Data Sets

To demonstrate that the findings were not based on a single data set, the analysis was replicated in two separate NSFG data sets covering the periods 2006-2010 and 2011-2013. In both analyses, the 28-32 age range emerged as the period with the lowest risk of childlessness. According to the researcher’s studies, data from more than 10,000 participants were used.

However, experts have found these results.The ideal marriage age for everyone is 28-32"The study points out that it should not be interpreted in that way. In addition to age, economic conditions, the quality of the relationship, personal maturity, and compatibility between spouses also play an important role in the sustainability of marriage.

Thus the study does not show that everyone who marries at a certain age will be happier or remain married longer. Its main finding is that there is a non‑linear, U‑shaped relationship between marriage age and divorce risk.